When climate variation, water management and other forms of pollution were added into the mix, the lake system quickly lost its resilience. According to Willcock, this was because projections had been based on one factor – agricultural runoff that was loading the water system with excess nutrients – but other stresses compounded and accelerated this degradation. Lake Erhai in China collapsed sooner than most observers expected. But when you combine this with other threats, such as water stress, degradation and river pollution from mining, the breakdown comes much quicker. It observes that most studies until now have focused on one driver of destruction, such as climate change or deforestation. The new study underlines that alarming prospect. However, several prominent Brazil-based scientists, including Carlos Nobre, have warned that this may come much sooner. In its latest report, it said there was a chance of a tipping point in the Amazon by the year 2100. The United Nations’ top science advisory body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has been more cautious. Compared with the long-established and conclusively proven link between fossil fuels and global heating, the science of tipping points and their interactions is relatively undeveloped. The research, which was published on Thursday in Nature Sustainability, is likely to generate a heated debate. “We could realistically be the last generation to see the Amazon.” “It could happen very soon,” said Prof Simon Willcock of Rothamsted Research, who co-led the study.
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